Uncertainty and Business Cycles Asymmetries

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://www.lib.ncsu.edu/resolver/1840.16/4506

Title:	Uncertainty and Business Cycles Asymmetries
Authors:	Sepulveda Umanzor, Jean Paul
Advisors:	John Lapp, Committee Member Douglas K. Pearce, Committee Member Matthew Holt, Committee Member John J. Seater, Committee Chair
Keywords:	Asymmetric Business Cycles Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Issue Date:	8-Jul-2005
Degree:	PhD
Discipline:	Economics
Abstract:	In this dissertation I investigate how macroeconomic uncertainty behaves during the business cycle, and then I present a model that can reproduce what I find in the data. I first present evidence, from surveys of expectations, that indicates that macroeconomic uncertainty is higher during expected slowdowns than during expected expansions in real GDP. I then, try to explain this theoretically. To do that, I show that the standard stochastic growth model can be expanded to include an endogenous depreciation rate, allowing it to deliver the findings previously discussed. The model generates asymmetric output fluctuations in response to symmetric productivity shocks. Business cycle asymmetries then reproduce the pattern of uncertainty described in the empirical chapter.
URI:	http://www.lib.ncsu.edu/resolver/1840.16/4506
Appears in Collections:	Dissertations

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