NC State Theses and Dissertations

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Browsing NC State Theses and Dissertations by Author "A. Ronald Gallant, Committee Member"

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    A Stochastic Volatility Model and Inference for the Term Structure of Interest
    (2007-04-25) Liu, Peng; A. Ronald Gallant, Committee Member; Denis Pelletier, Committee Member; William H. Swallow, Committee Member; Peter Bloomfield, Committee Chair; David Dickey, Committee Member
    This thesis builds a stochastic volatility model for the term structure of interest rates, which is also known as the dynamics of the yield curve. The main purpose of the model is to propose a parsimonious and plausible approach to capture some characteristics that conform to some empirical evidences and conventions. Eventually, the development reaches a class of multivariate stochastic volatility models, which is flexible, extensible, providing the existence of an inexpensive inference approach. The thesis points out some inconsistency among conventions and practice. First, yield curves and its related curves are conventionally smooth. But in the literature that these curves are modeled as random functions, the co-movement of points on the curve are usually assumed to be governed by some covariance structures that do not generate smooth random curves. Second, it is commonly agreed that the constant volatility is not a sound assumption, but stochastic volatilities have not been commonly considered in related studies. Regarding the above problems, we propose a multiplicative factor stochastic volatility model, which has a relatively simple structure. Though it is apparently simple, the inference is not, because of the presence of stochastic volatilities. We first study the sequential-Monte-Carlo-based maximum likelihood approach, which extends the perspectives of Gaussian linear state-space modeling. We propose a systematic procedure that guides the inference based on this approach. In addition, we also propose a saddlepoint approximation approach, which integrates out states. Then the state propagates by an exact Gaussian approximation. The approximation works reasonably well for univariate models. Moreover, it works even better for the multivariate model that we propose. Because we can enjoy the asymptotic property of the saddlepoint approximation.
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    Three Essays on Dynamic Panel Data Estimation
    (2009-12-01) Eryuruk, Gunce; Mehmet Caner, Committee Chair; Xiaoyong Zheng, Committee Member; Atsushi Inoue, Committee Member; A. Ronald Gallant, Committee Member
    This dissertation consists of three essays, first two of which consider a new estimation method of dynamic panel data models and the last one considers an application of these models. The first essay (Chapter 1) offers empirical likelihood (EL) estimation of dynamic panel data models, which provide great flexibility to empirical researchers. EL estimation method is shown to have great advantages in usual settings, however little is known on the relative merits of these estimators in panel data models. With this essay, we try to fill that gap by establishing the asymptotic properties of the EL estimator for a dynamic panel model with individual effects when both the time and the cross-section dimensions tend to infinity. We give the conditions under which this estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. In the second essay (Chapter 2), via a Monte Carlo study, we assess the relative finite sample performances of EL, generalized method of moments, and limited information maximum likelihood estimators for an autoregressive panel data model when there are many moment conditions. We also extend our results to the many weak moments settings. Our results suggest that when the overall performances are concerned, in terms of median, interquartile range and median absolute error of the estimators, in both strong and weak moments settings, EL is more reliable. In the final essay (Chapter 3) we consider an application of dynamic panel data models to examine the determinants of the allocation of state highway funds using panel data for North Carolina's 100 counties for the years 1990 to 2005. We make two main contributions with this essay. First, although there have been numerous studies of highway funding at the state level, to our knowledge, there is no analysis at the sub-state or county levels. Second, by using dynamic panel data models and sophisticated methods to estimate them, we account for any potential persistence in the process of adjustment toward an equilibrium, besides, unlike most of the previous studies, we control for the unobserved county heterogeneity and time effects that explain spatial differences, which may cause omitted variable problem if ignored.