Master of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology Professional Papers

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  • Predictive Occurrence Modeling for Three Rare Plants Within the Croatan National Forest
    (2023-03) Moonier, Heather
    Rare plants are valuable indicators of areas of biological significance, and their persistence over time serves as a measure of ecological health and good land stewardship. Knowledge of the extent of rare plant distributions and the viability of rare plant populations is valuable information for assessing the risk of extirpation, future research, and management decisions. I constructed predictive occurrence models for three rare plants, Platanthera integra, Pinguicula pumila, and Asclepias pedicellata, using the Presence-only Prediction (MaxEnt) Tool in ArcGIS Pro 2.9. Explanatory variables used to model rare plant distributions included a LiDAR-based digital elevation model (DEM) of Croatan National Forest, soil series, and natural community data. Models were trained with Elemental Occurrence data obtained from the North Carolina Natural Heritage Program. The tool generated significant models with an area under the receiver- operator curve (AUC)>0.80 for all three species. The model for Asclepias pedicellata accurately predicted two new populations. However, observers failed to find individuals at the predicted sites surveyed for Platanthera integra and Pinguicula pumila. This may have been due to the timing of surveys or the accuracy of the models. The results of this study demonstrate that the Presence-only Prediction (MaxEnt) Tool may prove to be a valuable predictor of undiscovered populations of rare species, especially once the environmental filters and life history traits driving the distribution patterns of a rare focal species are better understood.
  • A Weight-Length Analysis of the Neuse River Waterdog and Comparison among Populations within its Range
    (2023) Shook, Brieana
    The Neuse River Waterdog (Necturus lewisi) is an aquatic salamander, endemic to the Neuse and Tar-Pamlico River basins of North Carolina. It was listed as federally threatened in 2021, following apparent population declines. There is a need to determine if size changes across populations or sexes, which may serve as a guideline for recovery objectives targeting size or body condition metrics. Our objective was to gain an understanding of N. lewisi female and male size across populations within its current distribution in the Neuse and Tar-Pamlico River basins in the Coastal Plain and Piedmont regions of North Carolina. We conducted surveys to detect N. lewisi and collect morphometric data during the months of November - March from 2018 to 2022. We measured total length (TL, mm), snout-to-vent length (SVL, mm), and weight (g) of all individuals captured. A weight/length ratio was also calculated. We hypothesized adult size would differ between: 1) female and male individuals; 2) regions, Coastal Plain and Piedmont; and 3) river basins, Neuse and Tar-Pamlico. We ran 28 unpaired t-tests to compare measurement means and weight/length ratios and evaluated the comparisons with a size-corrected alpha level (p<0.05/28). Adult N. lewisi differed between the Coastal Plain and Piedmont regions with Coastal Plain adults being larger than those in the Piedmont region. We speculated the differences in size could be due to an increasingly urbanized landscape, climate change, or variations in habitat quality across its range.
  • Spatial and Temporal Variation in Female Wild Turkey Roost Site Selection
    (2023) Canabal, Desiree
    Nocturnal roost sites are a habitat requirement for Meleagris gallopavo silvestris (Eastern Wild Turkey), and appropriate roost sites lessen predation risk and provide thermal protection from extreme weather. Most prior research has focused on male roost site selection, typically within a single publicly owned property. We assessed roost site selection of female Wild Turkeys in relation to distance to road, water, and opening on privately owned properties across the three main ecoregions of North Carolina. We captured and monitored 355 individuals and collected 64,924 roost locations from 2020-2022 during the leaf on (March 15 to October 31) and leaf off (November 1 to March 14) seasons, which were based roughly on the phenology of deciduous trees. We used backwards stepwise selection to determine the best fit GLM model that included year, leaf season, region, and distance to water, road, and opening as predictors of roost site selection. Female turkeys roosted closer to water (mean=138.0, SE=0.4047) than random (mean=160.7, SE=0.4872) consistently across leaf seasons and regions. The best fit model included an interaction between leaf season and distance to road and interaction between leaf season and distance to opening. Wild Turkeys selected roost locations closer to roads (mean=507.9, SE=1.562) than random (mean=539.4, SE=1.786) during the leaf on season but not during the leaf off season. Similarly, female Wild Turkeys selected roost locations closer to open land cover (mean=134.2, SE=1.088) than random (mean=167.1, SE=1.151) during the leaf on season but not during the leaf off season. Selection was generally consistent across regions, indicating that efforts to conserve roosting areas can be applied uniformly across broad geographic scales.
  • Ecological Effects of a Declining Red Wolf Population
    (2023) Murray, Alexa
    Carnivores, especially wolves (Canis sp.), have profound impacts on their ecosystems, affecting the abundance and behavior of prey and competitors, but this has not been examined for red wolves (C. rufus). We studied a population of red wolves that was reintroduced to eastern North Carolina in 1987, initially thrived, but experienced a population crash in 2014. We evaluated changes in the relative abundance of prey and competitor species during the red wolf decline with 25 camera traps run in the Red Wolf Recovery Area from 2015 – 2021. If red wolves were having an ecological effect on the mammal community, we expected this effect would decline as the wolf population waned, resulting in increases in prey and competitor populations. Supporting this, we found that relative abundance increased for most prey and competitor species including American black bear (Ursus americanus), bobcat (Lynx rufus), Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana), and Northern raccoon (Procyon lotor). For all species this increase was most notable after spring 2018, the first season without wolf reproduction. For some species, the increase was dramatic, with a doubling of the detection rate for raccoon, bear, and bobcat in the spring of 2021 compared to the spring of 2018. Our results support the hypothesis that red wolves had a strong effect on their ecosystems by suppressing prey and competitor populations when they were at their peak. The delay between the wolf decline and ecosystem response suggests that there could be a 2–3-year time lag in the effects of the wolf population on the species around them and/or that the ecological release was only notable when the wolves reached their lowest population size and failed to breed. This study shows that reintroduction of large predators can play important ecological roles, but their effects decline if their numbers dwindle to critically low numbers.
  • Establishing a Wildlife Monitoring Framework for Schenck Forest: Lessons Learned
    (2021-12) O'Grady, Grainne
    Wildlife monitoring programs are important for monitoring changes in wildlife abundance and diversity and can be used to highlight specific patterns and possible drivers of population change. Data created from long-term monitoring projects can provide information to managers and researchers to guide management decisions and development of research hypotheses. Long-term wildlife monitoring projects can also provide opportunities for undergraduate students to gain important skills in preparation for future employment. I laid the foundation for a long-term wildlife monitoring project at the Carl Alwin Schenck Memorial Forest to both establish baseline data on wildlife populations and offer opportunities for hands-on learning by undergraduate students in the College of Natural Resources at North Carolina State University. I established 31 survey points within the forest where coverboards were placed and bird point counts were conducted. Additional surveys were conducted by students as part of several courses. Wildlife detections in 2021 included 96 bird species, 10 reptile species, 9 amphibian species, and 8 mammal species. Herein, I summarize a possible sampling framework for long-term monitoring, outline potential challenges and limitations of various survey methods, and describe examples of how to engage students in the process.