Predicting Managerial Performance in Law Enforcement: The Impact of Work Setting and Rater Position

Abstract

The purpose of this research was twofold: to determine the predictive validity of a promotion process currently in use at a statewide law enforcement agency; and to investigate the effect that rater position and work context exhibit on the relationships between three components of job performance and overall performance ratings. Results indicate that performance ratings are the most robust predictor of supervisory performance, after accounting for the effects of time in rank and the number of times an individual participated in the promotion process before being promoted. The predictive validity of the promotion process was modest but statistically significant, accounting for approximately 21% of the variance in supervisory performance when the evaluator's position and the incumbents' work setting were included in the model. Results for the criterion side of the model indicate that task performance and citizenship performance account for the greatest amount of variance in overall supervisory performance. The effects that rater position and work context have on the relative weights of task, citizenship and counterproductive performance were inconclusive but suggest a possible interaction between rater position and work setting.